Posted by
InchDeep on Monday, September 29, 2008 12:56:58 AM
America is really getting stupid.
www.mcclatchydc.com
Tide flowing for Obama as campaign enters final weeks.
By Steven Thomma | McClatchy Newspapers
COLUMBUS, Ohio — Five weeks before election day, the tide may be turning toward Barack Obama.
Several things still could swing the contest back toward John McCain,
most notably the remaining debates. But as of now, forces are coming
together to help Obama just as the long campaign enters the final
stretch.
Among the key developments in recent days:
- His performance in Friday night's debate helped assure some nervous
voters that he is experienced enough to be commander-in-chief, a
critical threshold for the young, first term senator to meet;
- The
continuing focus on the economy plays to his political advantage. The
Wall Street crisis and proposed bailout guarantees intense attention by
voters, and the remaining debates will overwhelmingly focus on it and
domestic issues;
- The initial burst of Republican enthusiasm over Sarah
Palin may be dampened by shaky performances in TV interviews and
skepticism, if not outright hostility, from some conservative
columnists.
"In the last week and a half, the landscape has moved a little in
favor of Sen. Obama," said Herb Asher, a political scientist at Ohio
State University.
Nationally, Obama now leads McCain.
A
Gallup daily tracking poll Sunday showed Obama opening a 50-42 lead
just a week after being locked in a tie. "Obama has gained steadily,"
Gallup said.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen Sunday reported Obama
holding a 50-44 lead nationally and gaining ground in many battleground
states. In Ohio, for example, he found McCain's 4 point lead a week ago
shrinking to 1 point. "State polling conducted this week generally
followed the national trend and confirmed a trend favoring Obama,"
Rasmussen said.
This doesn't mean it's over.
Obama has
opened up similar leads before, after his convention in August and
after his overseas trip in July. Each time, he lost that lead and even
fell behind.
He showed in the Democratic primaries against
Hillary Clinton that he's a weak closer. And both his relative
inexperience and race still present challenges for a Democrat who
arguably should have a sharp advantage in a year when the Republican
president is unpopular and the country is very unhappy with the status
quo.
But some fundamentals may be changing late in the campaign that could help him hold and perhaps even build his lead.
For one, the debate may have started to settle the question of whether Obama could be commander-in-chief, a critical test.
One
survey of poll watchers for CBS News, for example, found a jump in the
ranks of people who believed Obama was prepared to be president. More
people still thought McCain prepared, by a margin of 18 percentage
points — but a majority for the first time in that poll said the same
of Obama.
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-SC, a close McCain adviser, conceded that Obama looked good in the debate.
"Senator
Obama did well. Senator Obama helped himself, according to the polls,"
Graham said on Fox News Sunday. He added, however, that McCain still
had the edge on who was seen as more prepared. "There's an 18-point
difference between who is best able to do the job. We'll take that,"
Graham said.
Perhaps. But Obama did gain in an area that has been perhaps his most glaring political weakness.
And attention is likely to remain on the economy right up to the election.
Polls
show voters prefer Obama over McCain to handle the economy, and at
least one Republican strategist thought the Wall Street mess would also
help Obama.
"If John McCain loses this election a month from now
...we're going to look back at this last week and see that this is
where the campaign changed," Alex Castellanos said on CNN's Late
Edition program Sunday.
Finally, Palin's performances in three TV
interviews are raising questions among some conservatives, who are
using words like atrocious and dreadful to describe her answers.
"Palin
filibusters. She repeats words, filling space with deadwood. Cut the
verbiage and there's not much content there," conservative writer
Kathleen Parker said this week.
Parker called Palin an "attractive, earnest, confident candidate" but also one who is "clearly out of her league."
"I
thought Palin was dreadful," National Review editor Rich Lowry said
after seeing her interview with CBS. "She had better be better prepared
for next week or she risks damaging her political brand forevermore."
Palin
still draws huge crowds among the faithful. And she has a high profile
chance to regroup when she debates Joe Biden Oct. 2.
But for now, said Asher at Ohio State, "some of the glow is off the Palin